Forecasting journalism
What’s likely
to happen next.
A daily forecast for everyday people. We weigh prediction markets, Wall Street analysts, polling, and official data — then publish our own probability number in plain English.
Not financial advice.
July 29, 2026
Will the confirmed death toll from the July 2026 Japan earthquake exceed 50 by August 12, 2026?
Probable’s read
Wednesday, July 29
All stories →Japan Earthquake: Racing to Find Survivors
At least 13 people have died and rescuers are still searching a collapsed mall — but the final toll remains deeply uncertain.
Probable’s read
Drafted from cited sources and reviewed before publishing. How this works
Also on Probable today
Iran Fires Missiles at US Base After Pause
Iran launched a surprise missile attack on a US base for the first time since Trump paused strikes — and the US and Saudi Arabia responded with strikes on Iranian proxies in Iraq. Polymarket traders say an effective ceasefire by July 31 is a coin flip.
Nasdaq-100 Slides Into Correction Territory
Chip and memory stocks led a broad selloff Tuesday, pushing the Nasdaq-100 into correction — even as the Dow rallied and oil prices kept easing.
The scoreboard
Full scoreboard →Most recently resolved
Japan Earthquake: Racing to Find Survivors
RightWe said 26% (unlikely). Outcome: no.
See the full forecast →Why Probable
Three things that distinguish our approach.
Our own forecast, not a market mirror
We don’t just report what Polymarket or Manifold say. Every story carries Probable’s own probability number — a synthesis of markets, professional analysts, polling, and official data. We show the work.
Written for people, not insiders
Each briefing answers one question and shows the reasoning behind the number. No basis points, no Fed-speak — without oversimplifying what the evidence actually says.
Honest about uncertainty
Forecasts are wrong sometimes. So are we. Every prediction we make is publicly scored on our scoreboard. You see the hits, you see the misses.
Get the daily read
in your inbox.
What’s likely, every weekday morning — markets, data, and official sources synthesized into one clear number. Free.
No spam, and you can unsubscribe at any time. Read our privacy policy and methodology.