Forecasting journalism
What’s likely
to happen next.
A daily forecast for everyday people. We weigh prediction markets, Wall Street analysts, polling, and official data — then publish our own probability number in plain English.
Not financial advice.
June 18, 2026
Will Bernie Sanders' proposal to give the public direct ownership stakes in AI companies pass into law by December 31, 2027?
Probable’s read
Thursday, June 18
All stories →Sanders' Plan to Give Americans a Stake in AI
The Vermont senator's proposal for public ownership of AI companies has almost no path to passage — but it defines a policy debate that is only getting louder.
Probable’s read
Also on Probable today
The US-Iran Ceasefire Deal
Trump signed a 14-point ceasefire agreement with Iran today, but he said he could still resume attacks. How durable is this deal?
Fed Signals Rate Hikes Under Warsh
Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC meeting and Fed policymakers signaled support for rate hikes — a sharp turn from recent expectations.
England's World Cup Odds
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is underway, and Polymarket traders give England a 13% chance of winning it all. Is that fair value?
The scoreboard
Full scoreboard →Most recently resolved
Anthropic and the White House Are Still Fighting Over Claude Fable 5
RightWe said 20% (unlikely). Outcome: no.
See the full forecast →Why Probable
Three things that distinguish our approach.
Our own forecast, not a market mirror
We don’t just report what Polymarket or Manifold say. Every story carries Probable’s own probability number — a synthesis of markets, professional analysts, polling, and official data. We show the work.
Written for people, not insiders
Each briefing answers one question and shows the reasoning behind the number. No basis points, no Fed-speak — without oversimplifying what the evidence actually says.
Honest about uncertainty
Forecasts are wrong sometimes. So are we. Every prediction we make is publicly scored on our scoreboard. You see the hits, you see the misses.
Get the daily read
in your inbox.
What’s likely, every weekday morning — markets, data, and official sources synthesized into one clear number. Free.
No spam, and you can unsubscribe at any time. Read our privacy policy and methodology.