Track record
Our scoreboard
Every forecast we’ve made, scored against what actually happened. The scoreboard updates automatically as markets close; a human reviews each entry before it goes live.
Track record so far
Loading…
How this works
Probable is built on the premise that we will sometimes be wrong. This page is the public record of how often that happens.
When a question we have written about resolves — a market closes, an election is called, an inflation number is released — we score what we said against what actually happened. The scoreboard updates automatically. A human reviews each entry before it posts.
How “Right” is defined
If Probable’s forecast was above 50% and the event happened, it’s scored Right. If we were above 50% and the event didn’t happen, it’s Wrong. Forecasts near 50% are inherently uncertain — the methodology page explains how we handle edge cases.
Corrections policy
If we made a factual error in a briefing, we publish a correction here. The original error is not scrubbed — we link to both. Spotted something we missed? Use the form below.
Recently resolved
The most recent forecasts with a clear outcome, newest first.
Corrections
When we got something wrong, we say so here. Spotted an error? Use the form on the right.
Published corrections — newest first
Spotted something?
If you found a factual error, a bad source citation, or a number that looks off, let us know. We check every submission against our original sources.
Not financial advice. Probable is primarily AI-drafted and human-reviewed before publishing.