Privacy

Your email address, if you subscribe to our newsletter. That’s the only personal information we ask for.

Anonymous analytics about page visits — which pages are read, roughly where in the world readers come from (country level), and which links are clicked. Our website analytics are handled by Plausible, which does not track you across the internet and does not build a profile of you.

Email open and click data, if you’re a newsletter subscriber. Like virtually every email platform, Beehiiv uses a standard open-tracking pixel to measure whether emails are opened and which links are clicked. This is common practice and limited to the newsletter itself — it is not used to track you across other websites.

We use your email to send you the Probable newsletter and, if you’re a paid subscriber in the future, related account information. We do not use it for anything else.

We use the anonymous analytics to understand which stories people actually read and to make the site better. We do not sell this data.

We use a small number of trusted services to run Probable, each of which has its own privacy practices:

• Beehiiv — sends and stores newsletter subscriptions. Your email lives there.
• Vercel — hosts the website. Standard server request logs apply.
• Supabase — stores our published briefings, forecasts, and corrections. It does not store any personal reader data.
• Anthropic — provides the AI models we use to draft analysis. We do not send your personal data to Anthropic — only the source material we’re synthesizing.
• Plausible Analytics — privacy-friendly website analytics. Plausible does not use cookies, does not track you across sites, and does not collect personal information. Only aggregate, anonymous counts are stored.

We will update this list if we ever add another service that touches user data.

We don’t sell your email or any data about you.

We don’t share your personal data with advertisers or data brokers. If Probable ever carries sponsored content, it will be clearly labeled — sponsors do not receive subscriber data.

We don’t use advertising or cross-site tracking pixels on the website. The newsletter uses a standard open-tracking pixel (see above), but no advertising network is involved.

We keep your email address for as long as you remain subscribed to the newsletter. When you unsubscribe, Beehiiv retains it for a short period as required by their platform policies and then deletes it. If you want us to remove it immediately, email us at the address below.

Anonymous analytics data (aggregate page-visit counts) is retained indefinitely because it contains no personal information.

You can unsubscribe from the newsletter at any time using the link at the bottom of every email.

You can ask us to delete the data we hold about you. Email privacy@theprobablenews.com and we’ll handle it within 30 days.

California residents (CCPA). You have the right to know what personal information we have collected about you, to request deletion, and to opt out of any sale of your information. We do not sell personal information. To exercise these rights, email the address above.

European and UK residents (GDPR / UK GDPR). You have the right to access, correct, delete, or port the personal data we hold about you, and to object to or restrict its processing. Our legal basis for processing your email address is your consent (newsletter subscription). To exercise any of these rights, email the address above.

We use only essential cookies needed for the site to work. We do not use advertising or tracking cookies.

If we update this policy, we’ll change the “Last updated” date at the top of this page and note significant changes in the newsletter so subscribers know.

Privacy questions: privacy@theprobablenews.com

General questions: hello@theprobablenews.com