Probable forecastOpen
Israel-Iran Ceasefire Hanging by a Thread
The ceasefire is more likely than not to survive the next 24 hours, but the escalating news environment puts the market's 76% estimate under pressure.
Probable’s read
Medium confidence. Based on prediction-market pricing.
Market cross-check: 71% — Probable's read differs by 2 points, for the reasons below.
Polymarket traders priced the ceasefire surviving through July 25 at 76% on roughly $361,000 in 24-hour volume — a reasonably liquid signal. However, CNN reports 13 consecutive nights of U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets, The Guardian reports an Israeli security minister joining Jewish extremists in storming al-Aqsa mosque, and Axios reports Trump vowing retaliatory infrastructure strikes on Iran for every ship Iran attacks. These are concrete destabilizing events that suggest the market may be modestly overconfident; we shave back to 68 percent.
What’s likely. Polymarket has priced the odds of the ceasefire holding through July 25 at 76%. Probable reads the news environment as modestly more fragile than that: CNN reports the U.S. has carried out strikes on Iranian military targets for 13 consecutive nights, and The Guardian reports Israel's security minister joined a raid on al-Aqsa mosque, drawing condemnation from Arab and Muslim nations. A ceasefire holding through one more day is still the more probable outcome — but the gap between holding and breaking is narrowing with each of these incidents.
The evidence
Prediction markets
Polymarket traders priced the ceasefire continuing through July 25 at 76%, on roughly $361,000 in 24-hour volume.
76%Source: Polymarket
The synthesis
How Probable got to 73 percent
The Polymarket market is the main anchor here at 76%, backed by roughly $361,000 in 24-hour volume and a resolution window of under 24 hours — conditions under which active traders with current information carry significant weight. The red team correctly notes that the 13 consecutive nights of U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets, reported by CNN, have already occurred inside the ceasefire window without triggering a formal collapse, which is evidence the market has likely absorbed. That said, Probable does not fully match the market price: The Guardian's reporting of Israel's security minister joining a raid on al-Aqsa mosque, Axios's reporting of Trump vowing to strike Iranian infrastructure for every ship Iran attacks, and Al Jazeera's reporting of possible Russian involvement in Iranian strikes on CIA facilities in the Gulf all represent fresh friction that a rapidly-settling market may not have fully discounted. We land at 73 percent — meaningfully likely, but with a realistic range of roughly 58 to 82 percent given how many live escalation points exist. The resolution date is tomorrow, so this number will be tested quickly.
Why it matters to you
An Israeli-Iran ceasefire collapse would immediately affect oil markets — Reuters reported oil hitting $100 a barrel in the current conflict environment — and would reshape the U.S. military posture in the region with very little warning.
What to watch
Any official Iranian statement formally declaring the ceasefire void, or a unilateral Israeli airstrike on Iranian territory not covered by existing rules of engagement, would resolve this question NO before the July 25 deadline.
Further reading
- CNN — “US says it hit Iranian military targets in 13th consecutive night of strikes”
- The Guardian — “Israeli security minister joins Jewish extremists as they storm al-Aqsa mosque compound”
- Axios — “Trump vows to hit an Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship Iran attacks”
- Reuters — “Wall St falls as tech earnings spark AI spending worries and oil hits $100”
The question we’re forecasting
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire remain in effect through July 25, 2026?
Resolves by July 25, 2026 — then we grade it yes/no on the scoreboard.
From the briefing
This forecast was published in Probable’s briefing on Friday, July 24, 2026: Friday on Probable — Trump's new tariff gambit, the Iran ceasefire on the clock, and a Fed holding firm.
Our record: 76% correct across 49 graded forecasts. Every forecast we publish is graded in public. See the scoreboard →
Probable’s forecasts synthesize prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. Drafted with AI from cited sources. Reviewed before publishing. Not financial advice. Methodology · Spot an error?