Probable forecastRight · Outcome: no
Russia Nuclear Test by June 30: Still Near Zero
Probable’s read
Low confidence. Synthesized from prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. How we forecast →
Where the prediction market sits
Probable cited Polymarket as the primary market reference for this forecast.
The question we’re forecasting
Russia Nuclear Test by June 30: Still Near Zero
Resolves by June 30, 2026.
Resolution
The market resolved no on July 12, 2026. That makes Probable’s read correct by our calibration rule (we score “right” when our probability was on the side that actually happened).
See the full track record on the scoreboard.
From the briefing
This forecast was published in Probable’s briefing on Thursday, June 11, 2026: Thursday on Probable — Inflation hits a three-year high, the Fed looks frozen, and Elon Musk is closing in on a trillion dollars.
Our record: 78% correct across 68 graded forecasts. Every forecast we publish is graded in public. See the scoreboard →
Probable’s forecasts synthesize prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. Drafted with AI from cited sources. Reviewed before publishing. Not financial advice. Methodology · Spot an error?