Probable forecastRight · Outcome: yes
The Fed Isn't Moving in July
A July rate hold is the overwhelming probability — Polymarket prices any move this month at just 26% in aggregate, leaving roughly 74% for no change.
Probable’s read
High confidence. Based on prediction-market pricing.
Market cross-check: 27% — Probable's read differs by 47 points, for the reasons below.
Polymarket prices a 25 bps hike at 25%, a 50 bps hike at 1%, a 25 bps cut at 0%, and a 50 bps cut at 0% — implying roughly a 74% probability of no change, derived by subtracting all move probabilities from 100. These are liquid markets with over $580,000 in combined 24-hour volume, making them strong signals. No analyst data was provided to push against this read, so Probable stays close to the market-implied number.
What’s likely. Adding up what Polymarket traders are pricing across the four rate-move scenarios — a 25 bps hike at 25%, a 50 bps hike at 1%, a cut of any size at essentially 0% — the implied probability of an unchanged rate decision at the July FOMC meeting is roughly 74%. That is a strong consensus, and with no analyst or official data in today's inputs pointing in a different direction, Probable sees no reason to depart from it. The most live risk is a surprise hike, not a cut.
The evidence
Prediction markets
Polymarket traders priced a 25 basis-point rate hike at 25%, on roughly $586,000 in 24-hour volume.
25%Source: Polymarket
Polymarket traders priced a 50 basis-point hike at just 1%, and a rate cut of any size at essentially 0%.
1%Source: Polymarket
The synthesis
How Probable got to 74 percent
Four separate Polymarket markets covering the possible July FOMC outcomes converge on the same picture: no meaningful probability of a cut, a 25% chance of a 25 bps hike, and essentially zero chance of a 50 bps hike. Together they imply a roughly 74% probability that rates are unchanged on July 29. The combined 24-hour volume across the four rate-move markets exceeds $1.9 million, making this one of the more liquid reads in today's inputs. The macro backdrop helps explain why the market is priced this way: Reuters reports oil has hit $100 a barrel, and today's lead story adds fresh tariff-driven inflation risk — a combination that argues against a cut but also makes a hike a live, if minority, possibility rather than a foregone conclusion. Probable stays at 74%, with confidence at medium because no analyst or government data independently corroborates the market signal.
Why it matters to you
With oil at $100 a barrel — as reported by Reuters — and tariff-driven inflation risks re-entering the picture via today's lead story, the Fed's July decision sets the near-term tone for whether monetary policy tightens into an already stressed macroeconomic environment.
What to watch
Any Fed official statement or leak suggesting a surprise hike is under active discussion would immediately move the 25% hike probability higher and narrow the hold probability below 70 percent.
Further reading
- Polymarket — “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?”
- Reuters — “Wall St falls as tech earnings spark AI spending worries and oil hits $100”
The question we’re forecasting
Will the Fed leave interest rates unchanged at its July 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving by July 29, 2026?
Resolves by July 29, 2026.
Resolution
The market resolved yes on August 1, 2026. That makes Probable’s read correct by our calibration rule (we score “right” when our probability was on the side that actually happened).
See the full track record on the scoreboard.
From the briefing
This forecast was published in Probable’s briefing on Friday, July 24, 2026: Friday on Probable — Trump's new tariff gambit, the Iran ceasefire on the clock, and a Fed holding firm.
Our record: 78% correct across 68 graded forecasts. Every forecast we publish is graded in public. See the scoreboard →
Probable’s forecasts synthesize prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. Drafted with AI from cited sources. Reviewed before publishing. Not financial advice. Methodology · Spot an error?