Probable forecastOpen
The Fed's July decision is essentially settled
Markets are pricing a July hold at 75%, making a cut or hike both near-zero probabilities — Probable agrees.
Probable’s read
Medium confidence. Based on prediction-market pricing.
Market cross-check: 70% — Probable's read differs by 4 points, for the reasons below.
Polymarket's 'no change' market carries $1.27 million in 24-hour volume at 75%, a liquid and credible signal for a one-week-out monetary policy question. The 25 bps hike market sits at 25% — plausible given oil-price pressure from the Iran conflict — but the cut markets are at 0–1%, ruling out any easing. We land at 74%, effectively matching the market, which is deep enough to trust at this time horizon.
What’s likely. Polymarket traders priced no change at 75% as of this morning, with the 25 bps hike market at 25% and both cut scenarios effectively at zero. Given that U.S. strikes on Iran have now entered their 12th consecutive night, per CBS News, and oil prices are under upward pressure, the small probability of a hike reflects a genuine if minority concern — but the consensus view, and Probable's, is that the Fed holds next week. The realistic range sits between 65 and 83 percent for a hold.
The evidence
Prediction markets
Polymarket traders priced no change at the July meeting at 75%, with $1.27 million in 24-hour volume.
Polymarket's 25 bps hike market sat at 25%, while both cut scenarios traded at 0–1%.
The synthesis
How Probable got to 74 percent
Multiple Polymarket markets covering the July FOMC decision collectively place a hold at 75%, a hike of 25 bps at 25%, and any cut at essentially zero — an internally consistent set of prices on a liquid, short-horizon question. Probable stays close to that 75% signal, shading one point to 74% to acknowledge that the Iran war's effect on energy markets introduces a modest upward-rate-pressure story, as evidenced by CBS News reporting on 12 consecutive nights of U.S. strikes and Al Jazeera's report of Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers. That conflict backdrop is likely already in the Polymarket price, but it is not absent from the calculus.
Why it matters to you
A hold next week keeps the focus on whether the Fed's next move — likely later in 2026 — will be a hike driven by war-related inflation or a cut if the broader economy softens.
What to watch
If WTI crude breaks and holds above $95 before Tuesday's meeting — Polymarket currently gives that a 43% chance — the probability of a hike rises and the hold probability falls, though no source quantifies exactly how far.
Further reading
- Polymarket (no change)
- CBS News — “U.S. launches 12th straight night of strikes as threats to oil trade deepen”
- Al Jazeera — “Yemen's Houthis claim attack on two Saudi oil tankers”
The question we’re forecasting
Will the Fed leave interest rates unchanged at its July 29, 2026 meeting?
Resolves by July 29, 2026 — then we grade it yes/no on the scoreboard.
From the briefing
This forecast was published in Probable’s briefing on Thursday, July 23, 2026: Thursday on Probable — Congress bankrolls the Iran war, oil markets watch the Strait, and the Fed holds firm.
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Probable’s forecasts synthesize prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. Drafted with AI from cited sources. Reviewed before publishing. Not financial advice. Methodology · Spot an error?