Probable forecastRight · Outcome: no
US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 15
Probable’s read
Low confidence. Synthesized from prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. How we forecast →
Where the prediction market sits
Probable cited Polymarket as the primary market reference for this forecast. View the market →
The question we’re forecasting
US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 15
Resolves by June 15, 2026.
Resolution
The market resolved no on June 19, 2026. That makes Probable’s read correct by our calibration rule (we score “right” when our probability was on the side that actually happened).
See the full track record on the scoreboard.
From the briefing
This forecast was published in Probable’s briefing on Tuesday, June 9, 2026: Tuesday on Probable — Peru's presidential race is too close to call, the World Cup field has clear long shots, and US inflation data lands Wednesday.
Probable’s forecasts synthesize prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. Drafted with AI from cited sources. Reviewed before publishing. Not financial advice. Methodology · Spot an error?