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Hegseth Under the Microscope on Iran War Costs
With $37.5 billion spent and no ceasefire in sight, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is drawing fire from both parties — but his job looks safe for now.
Probable’s read
Low confidence. Synthesized from prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data.
Cabinet secretaries facing bipartisan congressional scrutiny during an active military conflict are historically removed or resign at a low rate — roughly 10–20% within a calendar year. The scrutiny here is genuine and cross-party, per The Washington Post and Politico, but Trump has shown no public sign of withdrawing support, and the war context makes a mid-conflict firing politically costly. No prediction market is pricing this; we set our number at 18%, with a realistic range of 10–30%.
What’s likely. Hegseth is more likely than not to remain in office through the end of 2026. The bipartisan heat he is drawing in Congress is real — the New York Times, Washington Post, and Politico all covered his testimony this week — but congressional scrutiny alone has rarely dislodged a Defense Secretary during active hostilities. Trump said publicly that midterm politics will not affect his Iran war plan, per Politico, which signals he is not inclined to appease critics by changing leadership. The honest range on removal runs from about 10% to 30%, depending on how the war evolves.
The synthesis
How Probable got to 18 percent
No prediction market is currently pricing Hegseth's tenure, so this number rests entirely on the historical base rate and the specific news context. Cabinet secretaries facing bipartisan oversight hearings during active conflicts are dismissed at rates below 20% in a calendar year; the base rate anchors us near 15%. The reporting from The Washington Post and NBC News describes genuine bipartisan scrutiny — not just opposition-party noise — and Al Jazeera confirms the U.S. has now conducted 11 consecutive nights of strikes on Iran, meaning the pressure is unlikely to dissipate. We nudge slightly above the base rate to 18% to reflect that sustained, cross-party congressional attention does raise the tail risk, while noting that the wartime context cuts the other way. Confidence is low: the realistic range is 10–30%, and any ceasefire or escalation would shift this substantially.
Why it matters to you
Hegseth is the civilian face of a war that has now cost an estimated $37.5 billion, per the New York Times, and killed at least 18 U.S. troops, per Yahoo News — making his relationship with Congress one of the most consequential oversight stories of the year.
What to watch
Watch whether Senate Republicans — who are already pushing for more of a say in war decisions, per The Hill — move from public statements to concrete procedural action, such as a confirmation hearing or a formal resolution; that would meaningfully raise the removal probability.
Further reading
The question we’re forecasting
Will Pete Hegseth resign or be removed as Secretary of Defense by December 31, 2026?
Resolves by December 31, 2026 — then we grade it yes/no on the scoreboard.
From the briefing
This forecast was published in Probable’s briefing on Wednesday, July 22, 2026: Wednesday on Probable — Hegseth faces Congress over an $37.5 billion Iran war; the Fed looks set to hold; LeBron's next move keeps markets guessing.
Probable’s forecasts synthesize prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. Drafted with AI from cited sources. Reviewed before publishing. Not financial advice. Methodology · Spot an error?